Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Sort of Random Thoughts

3 is the magic number...The Sox are up by 3.

The Yankees are 8-8 versus the D-Rays. 35-32 versus the AL East.

The playoffs lineup in the Yankees favor as of today. They haven't lost to Cleveland this year, but are 3-6 against the Angels. The Wild Card gets Cleveland at this point.

Drew is on a tear and, hopefully, it carries through the playoffs. With the return of Youk and Manny, and Drew and Lowell still hitting, this becomes a dangerous lineup.

The Mets are struggling over in the NL East. If the Phillies catch them, the Mets are likely not to make the playoffs.

I am rooting for the Royals to overtake the White Sox in the AL Central.

I am glad the World Series is in an American League ballpark.

Santana is pitching for the Twins today. That means he won't pitch in Fenway. Probably good news for the Sox in terms of winning the division.

Ellsbury is the CF next year. No doubt. I am guessing Coco is gone.

With Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youk, Papelbon, Lester, Buchholz, and possibly Bowdoin at cheap money, and on the roster next year one has to give credit to the scouts for finding so much talent...Secondly, do they run at a big free agent? A-Rod at SS? That won't happen, but that is the only place I could see an upgrade...Unless they cut Lowell loose and run at A-Rod for 3b...

Of course, they could package a few players to Texas if they are willing to part with Saltalamacchia...but, I doubt they would...

Lastly, Francona has done a great job in a strange situation. Deciding on whether or not to play for the division, while having to rest guys...He seems to be making all the right decisions, right now...


  1. Nice post. Larry King would be proud (and I mean that in a good way). I think if you threw in a random football thought that would have been perfect.)

    One thought I will counter....I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss CLE vs NY. There are tons of articles floating around with data on teams in the post season vs. the regular season.

    Like this one: "Over the past two seasons, the team that won the season series over its opponent is 3-9 when those same teams meet in league postseason play."

    And this one: "OK, let's look at the entire Division Series and League Championship Series history during the wild-card era. The team that won the season series is 33-36 in postseason rematches, including 12-21 since 2001."

    Also note:

    CC did not pitch against NYY this year
    Carmona pitched twice and was respectable 4.15 ERA 1.26 WHIP even though he was only 0-1
    It was only 6 games. The first series was early in the year and the second series was when NYY was absolutely on fire.

    So, sure there could be a mental element. But CLE is the only other AL team beside the Sox to beat Rivera in a postseason game. Granted it was more than 10 years ago, but the idiots on the YES network talk about 96 and 98 all the time....

  2. Yes, with CC and Carmona the Indians will be tough. They match up against Pettitte and Wang...Then it gets wacky.

    Clemens v. Byrd?
    Mussina v. Byrd?

    My guess is that CC and Pettitte would face up again on short notice in Game 4.

    And I like the Sox chances against LAA. Especially since we'd have Beckett and a solid looking Schilling. And, as good as Lackey is, the Sox own him.

    Does anyone else think that Corey should make the post-season as a guy in the pen? But then who do you not take?

    And is Ellsbury eligible or does someone have to get hurt? The fact that he was up and then sent down then brought back up make him automatic? What's the rule?

  3. Elsbury can and will go. He can take the place of any player that was/is on the DL.

    I agree - Corey has pitched well of late. And last night's hiccup could more have been due to the circumstances He could go in place of a Lestern (not sure what his role would be in the playoffs) or even Snyder or Tavarez (who have not pitched well of late.)

    I guess the roster looks like

    C - Tek and Mirabelli
    1B Youk and Hinskie
    2b - dustin and Cora
    SS - Lugo
    3B - Lowell
    LF - Manny
    CF - Coco
    RF - Drew
    OF - Esbury and Kilety
    DH Ortiz

    That leaves 11 pitchers

    SP - Beckett, Schilling, Wake, Dice-K
    Closer - Papelbon
    Assuming nothing blows up in the last week, you definitely have- Delcarmen, timlin, lopez, gagne, oki

    Which leaves Bucholz, tavarez, snyder, and corey fighiting for the last spot. And maybe lopez is not on the definitely list, but I would think so.

  4. You really think that they would carry Hinske and Kielty? My guess would be that they would go with another arm and leave one of those guys home. Probably Kielty as Hinske can play OF, 3b, and 1b.

    Manny, Drew, Coco, Ellsbury, (Hinske)

    Youk, Pedroia, Lugo, Lowell, Cora, Hinske

    Varitek and Mirabelli

    That leaves 12 pitching spots open...You need Tavarez in case of a blowout...Otherwise you don't have anyone out there that can eat up some innings.

    Beckett, Schilling, Diasuke, Wake

    Papelbon, Oki, Gagne, Timlin, Lopez, Corey, Tavarez, Delcarmen

    I know that they want Buchholz, but I want to see him pitch some relief first before they put him in the post-season in that role.

    If they take Buchholz then I see Corey or Tavarez not making it...

  5. I absoultely think they keep Kielty. 11 pitchers in the playoffs is like 12 pitchers in the regular season. And with Manny and Coco having dings, they almost have to have another OF. Plus there are a lot of days off.

    And, I think you will get your wish with Bucholz today. I think they are doing a Lester start and a Bucholz relief. If he proves okay, they could totally keep Clay as Dice-K insurance. Dice-K starts a game, but is on a short leash. If Tito needs to get him in the middle of an inning, he can put Lopez or Corey in there, but then have Clay warming up to start a fresh inning after that.

  6. Looks like Manny is okay now. 4-5 and on base 6 of 7.