Dan Duquette (I believe it was him) was once quoted as saying it is best to wait until the second year of a deal to see how it actually played. What got me thinking about this one was the Arroyo-Pena deal, but then I started thinking of some others.
While it drew some heat all last summer, this deal has been pretty bad from both sides. Obviously Pena has not broken through (how can he when he bats 8 times per week and strikes out 4 of them), but Arroyo is looking particularly soft. Maybe it the toll all the innings took on him last year, maybe it is the NL hitters adjusting, who knows, but he looks awful. 6+ runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. But I would say Cincy ends up the big loser in this one. Not only did the Reds assume the "under market" three year $12MM contract for 2006-2008, but the extended him last winter for two more years/ $25MM. If he does not run it around, they will be paying a lot of $$ for someone that we pretty much knew was a 5th starter. At least Boston on pays WMP on one year deals and will probably end up getting a mid level prospect for him at some point.
Pedro - Sox look pretty smart on that one.
Johnny Damon - hard to believe that just 14 months into his Yankee tenure, he really can not play any position anymore. And his batting line is in the second year of decline. And despite a HR last night, that slugging % of .362 ranks him 77th of 94 regulars in the AL. So much for the short porch helping Damon in NY. Not if he can't stay healthy.... there is one thing to say about Damon, as much as he is an ass when giving quotes about the Yankees, I do think the players appreciate that he is out there talking to the media and taking pressure off others to do so.
Lowe - despite a mediocre record, he has pitched well this year. The Dodgers just can't hit. But he was a head case in Boston, so who knows what he would have done.
Lowell and Beckett for Sanchez and Ramirez - well, SS has been a rough patch since 2005 (that could be its own post...), that trade is looking pretty good for the Sox. Sure ramirez won the ROY and is playing pretty damn good this year, but Beckett is great this year and Lowell has been solid. Plus Sanchez is apparently heading to surgery.
Crisp - who knows. I guess one positive we can say is that he has turned out better than some of the other names bandied about as a replacement (like Jeremy Reed or Jacque Jones.). I imagine we might be seeing Elsbury after the ASB if Coco does not start hitting more consistently.
And SS, I wouldn't even know where to start.