Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Clemens - predictions

After watching last night's drama unfold in the Bornx (well, actually I didn't watch it, but followed the game on my blackberry while at the sharks game), it reinforces that Clemens will not be their savior. So, GR threw out some numbers, but I figured I would give it its owne thread.

Clemens 8-4 17 starts 92 IP 105H 95K 4.25 ERA

To put that in perspective, I believe that Beckett will have as many wins by the tinme Clemens takes the mound as Roger will get in his 4 months of pitching (plus his requisite 15 day DL stint for a pulled hammy).


  1. That's not too far off...

    I say he gets more like 115 innings or so. But I did forget the DL stint, so we pretty much agree there, too.

    I do think the Yankee lineup gets him some wins...I also think he'll get lit up in a few starts and be untouchable in others.

    I think your numbers are right on...

    Now, here's the followup question. If you saw these numbers without Clemens's name attached, what would you pay for the player?

    Funny enough...I think that Lester could post those numbers by the end of this year...

  2. Also, I watched the game last night on ESPN. Willie Bloomquist was out on his steal by at least 3 feet.


    Rivera still gave up what would have been the tying home run...

    The Yankees left a million guys in scoring position.

    The Mariners really can't hit all that well...

    After teams watch the Yankees rookie on tape, he's gonna get lit up...His stuff wasn't that great...his delivery is strange.

    A-Rod still only has 14 home runs...

  3. Two funny/scary things about the Clemens signing:


  4. Holy crap, Earl. I just came to post and ask if anyone had heard her call (I didn't have the link. In fact I had typed the same thing to a friend who is a Yankee fan and was going to post (with a small edit):

    "I'm not sure if you heard it, but the clip of Waldman announcing that Clemens was coming back is an absolute classic. It was a cross between her having an organsm sounding like a school child all giddy. Priceless."

    GR, I did see the call last night, but can't feel too bad for the team that has gotten plenty of calls in the past - I remember one where Sheff was out by a mile on a double play grounder (which would have ended the game, I think it was BAL) and the next batter (Giambi?) then hit a walkoff HR. And i won't even mentione Jeffrey Meier....

  5. Oh, I don't feel bad about it.

    I will never forget the Knoblauch "tag"...

    And, as I said, they also left a ton of guys on base.

    Waldman is the worse...and Sterling is second. I can't believe that Yankees fans are forced to listen to them on the radio. What do they do when the Yankees are on ESPN with Joe Morgan??? They can't have any sound!

  6. PS- Waldman says they no longer have to wonder who is going to take that spot in the rotation...

    What spot is that?
    The empty number 5?
    Mussina's when his leg explodes again?
    Pettitte's back?
    Wang's arm?

  7. Yea... that was a pretty ridiculous interview. I am glad I don't have to listen to them.

    Not that it means much, but my father who is an casual fan (of the Yankees - barf) was unimpressed by the Clemens move. I think it is telling that even casual fans are questioning whether it will be worth it.

    All that being said, I hope something new and interesting comes along quickly so that we don't talk about Clemens all the time. How about them Mets? or should I say, Brewers!

  8. bonds will get to be a pretty big story. I think it would be great if he goes on a tear in the next three weeks and ties the record the same night rog makes his debut. Steal some of the thunder. Unless of course Clemens gets lit up.

  9. Breaking News: ESPN is reporting that Roger Clemens just used the bathroom for the first time as a Yankee.

    Good lord. Obviously I'm exaggerating, but it seems like its all Roger all the time.

  10. I think we'll be hearing that for the next month or so...

    Torre won't have a choice but to start Clemens at Fenway by that time.

    The Yankees, meanwhile, are very lucky they've been seeing a lot of the Texas Rangers lately.

    Here's a question...What would one deem an insurmountable lead in terms of games at the All-Star break? In other words, if Team A is (blank) number of games up at the All-Star break, it is a lock.

  11. By the way...followup to X's breaking Clemens story.

    He didn't wash his hands when he left the restroom...

  12. A-Rod hit his 15th HR last night...

    ...the GR jinx strikes again.

  13. As for the ASB lead, seeing as how I remember 1978, I woulld have to say no lead is safe. Seriously. If they could not hold a 14 game lead, I would suspect that it would seriously take about a 20 game lead. Even last year, the Sox were up by 3 or 4 at the break (I think) and they finished 11 games back - a swing of 14 games.

  14. Yeah, I was thinking that no lead is really safe...

    Hell, even the Yankees had a 7+ game lead in September and lost most of their remaining games and nearly lost the division to the Sox.

    I was actually thinking more of the Blue Jays. Sure, they don't have BJ Ryan, but their lineup is healthy and they are now 8.5 back. If the Sox take the next two, they are 10.5 back...that's a pretty big hole to get out of, but still plausible this early in the season.

  15. Its too early to count anyone out, really. The Yanks were 9.5 games back on May 5th in 2005. Granted TOR does have some issues - Ryan and Johnson are hurt, Chacin does not look like he is ever going to be the pitcher they hoped he could be (and was for most of 2005).