Friday, December 08, 2006

Manny, Manny Possibilities Loom

So the latest and greatest (?) rumor flying around is Manny for Todd Helton. Not sure if I believe it at all...Why would Colorado dump Helton for Ramirez? Their salaries are similar (although they would save a little money with Manny over the long haul), and you are trading one bat for another. I can see the Sox interest here. They trade someone who wants to be traded and get pretty close dollar for dollar returns. Even if Helton's power numbers are/were helped by playing in Colorado, the guy can mash.

That brings me to the next point and/or question...

For a few years, we've heard about Aubrey Huff...Well, he entered free agency this off-season. I am surprised they haven't taken a run at him. Is he signed? Everywhere I've looked he's listed as a free agent (*unsigned)...If they can sign him, they could move Manny for less. Does he put up Manny numbers? No...but then you could make the Sexson deal, or take a little less from LA. I guess my surprise is that I've heard nothing about Huff.

As for the bullpen...I hope that Theo isn't going to be Boras's bitch. He signed Drew to a huge contract. Some thought was that he did it to get some leverage in the D-Mat deal. Now they are closing in on Gagne (who has only pitched about 15 innings over the last two years) at pretty big money. At least Foulke showed promise at the end of last year...Of course, there could be a huge upside IF Gagne is healthy. I am not holding my breath.

So the Sox as of now look like this

Youkilis 1B
Lugo 2B
Papi DH
Manny LF
Drew RF
Lowell 3B
Varitek C
Pedroia 2B
Crisp CF


They need a backup catcher still...probably the kid they got from the Padres...

Starting Pitching

This looks better with Matsuzaka, but he's not here, yet...

Japanese Dude

If D-Mat signs, that is 24 on the roster. One spot for the closer...Does Lester move to the pen? My guess is that once D-Mat is signed, the Sox start trading...Hansen, Tavarez, Delcarmen, Pena, Manny, and Hinske are on the block. If Manny goes for Helton, Youk or Lowell would go. Then they need a LF...Would they start Wily Mo?

Probably not...In fact, if you look at most of the Manny trade scenarios now, they would have to trigger many subsequent moves. Of course, it is only December...But, I can't see them completely reshuffling less than two months from players reporting.

So, I see some younger guys going out...

Just my thoughts...

PS- It is freezing in Boston today, so this baseball talk is like warms one up...


  1. "Down" here in Hartford, it is up to a balmy 17 degrees now at 11am. But that will change, and quickly. No winter stuff for maybe the rest of the month! Ooops, I'm's 17.8 degrees!

  2. The problem with rumors is that they are nearly almost never real. Some idiot reporter says hey, the Red Sox want to trade Manny and the Rockies want to trade Helton and then the reporter asks some GM or some “source” who gives a non-answer and it goes from there.

    But this would be one of the worst trades the Sox could make for Manny. I can almost stomach the thoughts of young studs coming for Manny and freeing up Manny. But contrary to GR’s opinion, Helton can no longer mash. And his number were more than helped by Coors – take a look at his career home/road splits, Not to mention that he has been declining for 6 straight seasons.

    Huff is still unsigned and I read something yesterday about him. He is another guy that is a shell of his former self (hmmm… both guys were solid in the 200-2003 time frame and then had rapid declines starting in 2004, I wonder what contributed to that), but in this market, you would think someone would take a look at him – certainly not a large market club with resources, but you would think you’d hear something.

    Where did you see that Hansen is on the block? All I hear is that they want him to be the closer of the future.

    SO here is my opening day lineup and rotation.

    SS Lugo
    1B Youk
    DH Ortiz
    LF Manny
    RF Drew
    3B Lowell
    C Tek
    CF Crisp
    2B Pedroia




    Gagne – I’m not thrilled with the choice, but hey, one year commitment is not awful. And I think they will come down of their asking price (in terms of guaranteed $$)

  3. Yes, I agree about the rumors. My point in that very long post is that if the Sox move Manny, then there would have to be a flurry of moves to fix the lineup. Or, they would have to get a Huff to go to LF, or re-sign Nixon, or have Wily Mo as the everyday guy there...

    From there, I made some assumptions about who might be on the block. Those were my assumptions (didn't see those written anywhere). Since they were willing to trade Hansen last year (near the deadline), I am assuming he could be traded now.

    Helton can hit for average, and his OBP is very good. I didn't notice his power decline until I just looked. Yikes...but he definitely fits the Sox prototypical player...

    Huff's power definitely spiked during that time, but he still hit 21 last year, and that was only in 131 games. He kind of sucks at Fenway (at least last year), but might be a better option than Trot. I know he's a 3B, but he plays the OF, too...he was basically on pace for 26.

    I'd like for the Sox to keep Manny at this point and get the bullpen in order. Looking at the FA market, there doesn't look like a ton of good arms out there. Will have to be through trades.

  4. Agreed Helton gets on base, but as you saw it is with very limited power. Those numbers are nice when Kevin Youkilis puts them up at $400k, but are not so nice at $16MM per year - and once factor in parks, their numbers are very similar.

    Huff is an enigma to me. On the suraface he had some decent numbers (even after testing began, to a certain extent), but he was a guy that never really factored into ballgames - he never seemed to get hits in key moments. I know this is outside the normal number crunching - but did a guy ever seem so unimpressive while putting up those numbers?

    One move from today that I really liked was the Royals signing Dotel. Let them guarantee him the money on a one year deal. If he is healthy and the Sox have not figure out their closer situation by May 31, then they can make a deal for him - KC will be long out of the race by then.

  5. From everything I've read, Huff plays 3B slightly better than Wily Mo plays RF. Huff's defensive value is all tied up in his versatility (all corner spots). We already have this guy: Eric Hinske.