Friday, December 01, 2006

Edes Goes Out On a Limb

Wow...you've got to love sports writers that take a chance with bold statements. Gordon Edes has done just that.

While reporting on whether Ramirez will be traded, Edes estimates there is a 50-50 chance.

Now, I took stats...There are two possible outcomes. 1, he gets traded. 2, he doesn't get traded. 1 out of 2 in either direction...that's 50/50. Edes is a madman! Why waste the ink? I mean is there another possible outcome to the scenario?

I know that he was trying to put a likelihood on Manny being traded (not just the cut and dry)...but even when someone says there's a 70 percent chance....there's really only a 50 percent chance. It either will...or won't happen.

Well, on another note...the Sox might offer arbitration to Nixon. I think that's a pretty good move. It really keeps them from having to sign another outfielder, and kind of makes Manny tradeable, and your bench deep. Your outfield players this year in Boston: Nixon, Drew, Crisp, Pena, Hinske, Youkilis. You could get Pena a bunch of at-bats, have two left-handed hitters who are injury-prone spell each other. You have plenty of depth. Not bad...Plus, you could still trade Pena and/or Crisp.

I'd say there's a 50-50 chance of Trot being offered arbitration....

3 comments:

  1. I wouldn't be so quick to call Edes an idiot. According to the Social Security Administration, there is 0.5% chance that a 35 year old Hispanic male will either die or become permanently disabled in any calendar year. I mean, if he really wanted to take no risk in his calculation, eh would ahve factored that into the equation. Warrants mentioning.

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  2. The type of sophisticated math that you used for the Manny stuff escapes me. 1 plus 1 equals two....I'm pretty sure. Tougue in cheekly, Peter. Have a great Sunday.

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