Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Old topic. New thread.

Over the weekend there was discussion of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the AL versus the NL. After reaching some sort of consensus on movement this winter, I had it on my agenda to look at which league was better in 2004.

As Jesse pointed out, there were many factors to consider. Interleague play. Red Sox domination over the 105 win cardinals. etc.

I tried to construct a model that would attempt to evaluate which league is stronger and I could not come up with any approach that I thought appropriate.

Among the things I looked at:

Interleague play - records virtually identical and run differential of 42 (in approximately 200 games, thus insignificant. Plus the differences in the rules seemed unfair to both teams.

Unlike the other sports, the sample sizes and rule differences make it impossible to draw conclusions based on head to head play.

World Series - The Sox killed the Cards and we are to widely assume that the Yanks would have done the same. The Cards won 105 games - I tried to analyze their record against teams with winning records, play off teams, winning pitchers. None of that worked - they were good.

I looked at runs scored and allowed, but could not determine how much of that was determined by DH - subtracting runs created by DHs in the AL and runs created by pitchers in the NL, I was again even steven - within 0.057%.

Pitching - can't really do much there (obviously) less runs in NL equals lower ERA.

Ugh.

So then ignoring the top of the leagues, where the Sox/Yanks appeared to have an advantage over the Cards (the only teams with winning percents over .600), the AL did have two teams below .400 versus one for the NL. Teams over .550 less than .600 - you guessed it 4 for the NL, 3 for the AL with each league having one at .549. Pretty damned close.
I was trying to show something about the standard deviation, but that really did not help - 13.0 in the AL and 13.6 in NL (mostly due to the AZ 51 win season - if you remove AZ and KC - the two lowest - SD is virtually identical at 11.6).

The last thing I did which doesn't really prove anything, but I though was worth noticing - even though it didn't show up in any stats.

Red Sox won the wild card - and only 3 teams were within 14 games of them and none within 7.

Houston won the wild card - and 5 teams were within 9 games.

So I wasted a few hours trying to determine which league was better - but could come up with nothing. Anyone have any other ideas?




111 comments:

  1. Yeah, it's really not obvious how to compare the leagues. W-L doesn't help much, because even if one league is great and one sucks, since teams mostly play within the league, the W-L stats could be the same in both. This is made even more complicated by the imbalanced schedule, where a disproportionate number of games are played within in a division.

    So it'd appear you'd need to use Interleague stats, but the sample size is so small (~10% of the games, centered on one time in the season) that's probably not accurate.

    Of course, this is only a problem for baseball -- in football and basketball the conferences play each other enough where a quick glance at the standings and W-L numbers shows which league is dominant.

    No idea. But I do know this: the Red Sox are World Champions.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well, I have some theories, but no stats to back them.

    The DH is a big AL advantage in the AL parks. The Cards didn't carry the extra slugger, while the Sox did. Advantage AL.

    I also think that the NL can't take the patient hitter approach as easily as the AL. You have the pitcher hitting for one thing. Basically in the NL, you have the 8th hitter (usually the weakest hitting position player you have) followed by the pitcher (nearly an automatic out) followed by the contact hitting, high-walk first hitter. In the AL you can have the number 8 (Mueller) followed by the number 9 (Varitek) followed by the number 1 (Damon).

    The AL owns the moneyball/Bill James approach then. This theory would be hard to implement in the NL because you have to give up outs. Are we seeing this effect?

    In the NL parks, AL pitchers have to feel a sense of relief not facing the DH. If they keep up their intensity level, those easy outs make for better outing. Of course, the NL pitchers should be used to this sort of thing, and if you look at the scores of the WS in St Louis, those were fairly well-played, well-pitched games.

    Overall, I don't think the AL is stronger. The Marlins disposed of a very good Yankees team last year. On paper, that Yankees team should have owned the Marlins. In fact, the last 3 WS winners have been Wild Card teams, so best record teams in each league haven't won it all in a while.

    And let's not forget that the Yankees won a bunch of WS prior to 2000 giving the AL the look of a dominant league while it was, for the most part, just that Yankees team.

    The last possiblity would be market share...Which league has the most small market teams? Off the top of my head I would say the NL...I will have to go through the list to verify...

    Sorry for the lack of continuity in this post, but I was just getting theories out there.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I think the size of markets (read: payroll) may be the issue most worth exploring there. Even that one would be tough because assume all the small market teams were in the NL, they all play against each other - maybe we would need to look at the marginal wins per $$ by league. Jeremy - get on this.

    I had thought about almost all the other points and really could not reach a conclusion.

    DH - sure this is a big advantage for the AL, but as noted in my original post, the difference in rules to both teams is unfair. Having the pitcher hit in NL parks is awful for the AL teams - look at the Sox records over the years.

    Patience/money ball approach - I don't think it is a matter of NL teams not being able to take the approach, I just think we hear a lot less about it. And with the lineup structures you noted, there are other factors that come into play - like the IBB for the number 8 hitter.

    Look at the BB received versus allowed ratios of these NL playoff teams
    STL 548/440
    Hous 590/525
    Atl 587/523
    LA 536/521

    Now the AL play off teams
    World champs Bos 659/447
    NY 670/445
    Ana 450/502
    Minn 513/431

    Of course the Sox and Yanks dominate this. Funny the original money ball team was an unimpressive 600/544.

    "In the NL parks, AL pitchers have to feel a sense of relief not facing the DH. If they keep up their intensity level, those easy outs make for better outing. Of course, the NL pitchers should be used to this sort of thing, and if you look at the scores of the WS in St Louis, those were fairly well-played, well-pitched games." - I would like to see how the AL pitchers as a whole faired in NL parks, my guess is that their numbers would tend to be similar to NL pitchers as a group (i.e., about a half run better). Again we have to ignore WS games just b/c the sample sizes are far too small.


    In fact, we can dismiss any World Series results present or past. Those sample sizes are just too small. As we have seen it just takes a Josh Beckett to pitch lights out and the proverbially best team on paper is done.


    I still think it is a great question. It would be kind of cool to have one or two seasons where they all play by the same rules and all play each other more. Obviously would never happen but would be interesting. Ugh. Ugh and more Ugh.

    ReplyDelete
  4. One note about Yanks/Marlins 2003 WS (both Matt's and Dave's comments)...This isn't meant to excuse the Yankees' loss, or to take away from the Marlins' victory, but I think the exhaustion on the part of the Yankees was very real. In Game 7 of the ALCS they used THREE of their starters... their ace closer pitched 3 innings.

    Of those pitchers, Mussina pitched well in the WS -- Clemens passably. Wells had one decent start, but in his second he didn't make it into the 2nd inning, forcing Torre to bring in an ineffective Contreras, who got the loss. Also, Weaver was once brought in late in a tied game, something you know Torre didn't want to happen -- a rested Rivera would've been a much better option. Naturally Weaver gave up a run for the loss.

    (Also, Game 7 in the ALCS was Giambi's last hurrah. He missed a WS start, and it's been downhill since.)

    Anyway, just throwing that out there. Basically I agree with Dave -- too small a sample size.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Well, to the tired out Yankees, I will say this. The Sox pitching was just as tired and battered (including Schilling stapling his tendon in place) and they swept the Cards. I think that the Marlins just flat out beat them.

    Let me throw this question out there, though.

    Is the AL really dominant? If so, how? What categories are we looking at here? W-L overall? W-L interleague?

    I think that the Yankees run really made the AL look dominant.

    I also think that some NL pitchers that crossed in to the AL and got shelled gave us the same impression. Vazquez? Terrible. Brown? Bad...When, in fact, you have to take in to account that they pitched in a high-pressure market.

    Longo, you pointed out the Sox interleague record. If the AL was dominant, wouldn't the WS Champ have pounded on the NL in interleague? They weren't that great at home or away in interleague, and even worse in past years...

    To further the point of lineup adjustments/money ball. When the #8 is IBB, the pitcher usually bunts him over, giving up an out. This is against the moneyball thing. There are probably some strike em out throw em out things in there, too...But I see what you are saying.

    Back to my original question, though. Are we going by dominance in World Champs or dominance through overall record?

    The AL EAST has some pretty bad team (Jays, Rays, O's) the Central (Indians, Tigers, KC, all of them except Minn) West? Seattle.

    The NL EAST...Marlins were one year removed from WS Champs. Braves. Everyone else? Bad.

    NL Central...Cubs, Cards Astros good (Brewers, Pirates...no good)

    NL West...Giants, Dodgers, Padres pretty good...(Rockies, D-Backs no good)

    NL 9 teams over .500

    AL 7 teams over .500

    And interleague play looks pretty even record-wise...

    ReplyDelete
  6. Matt, I totally disagree with your comparison of the two ALCS Game Sevens. The game 7 in 2004 was practically over after 2 innings...sure Schilling's ankle was stapled, but who else on the Sox was running on fumes? Schilling gave us 7 innings in Game 6, Lowe 6 in Game 7. So the bullpen (who pitched tons in games 3-5) had to pitch only 5 innings in 2 games, giving them plenty of rest. Of those five innings, one of those innings was pitched by Pedro; and 3 of those innings (in Game 7) were almost pressure-free, given the Sox's lead by that point. Foulke got the day off. Also, the Sox got 2 full days of rest between the ALCS and WS, to the 2003 Yankee's one day -- that is a huge difference.

    Anyway, interleague W-L numbers are tough because interleague is concentrated in one part of the season -- just when the Sox were in their .500 slump. If IL was spread out over the whole season, the W-L numbers may be more useful.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Sorry, I think that if you were thinking exhaustion that the situations are similar. Think of ALL the extra-inning games against the Yankees in the ALCS this year. The previous year I think the only extra-inning was game 7. Overall the pitchers (bullpen especially) this year threw way more innings.

    I think that the Marlins just jumped on the Yankees. They weren't ready for that style of play. If I recall, the first batter for the Marlins bunted for a base hit. He then stole second and scored on a single. The Marlins also got great pitching from Beckett.

    In this year's case, if you wanted to argue exhaustion, you could say that the Cards pitching staff was tired from their 7-gamer against Houston. That maybe we were less tired.

    But the Yankees were beaten by the Marlins. The Marlins flat-out outplayed them.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Stats to say it wasn't just exhaustion..

    Game 1...David Wells allowed three runs on six hits in seven innings and suffered the loss.

    Game 2...Yankees starter Andy Pettitte allowed one run on six hits in 8 2/3 solid innings (Yankees win 6-1)

    Game 3...Yankees starter Mike Mussina pitched seven strong innings (Yankees win again 6-1)

    Game 4...It was the final start of Roger Clemens' career. "The Rocket" allowed three runs on eight hits over seven innings (Yankees lost in 12 innings)

    Game 5...Wells left with back spasm and Contreras pitches...6-4 Marlins

    Game 6...Yankees lose 2-0 on a complete game by Beckett.

    The Yankees starters were more than competitive in this series. In fact, the Yankees only gave up 17 runs in 6 games (one of those games went 12 innings). That's less than 3 runs per game.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Okay, now that you guys are way off the best league topic and onto relative exhaustion (“sleep in November, damnit” – excellent quote this year from Francona even though he stole it) - I think where we were trying to go with this topic is “which league has more talent.” Is that where you were headed Jesse? That’s what I thought and was trying to “figure out.”

    At the risk of wimping out, I really can’t decide if one league is better than the other. Or at least I can’t think of a statistical way to show it.

    How tired the Sox as opposed to the Yankees does not really matter in the big picture. Interleague play is too small a sample. World Series play is even smaller and represents just one team per year.

    I agree the Yankee run made the AL look dominant, but still it is only 6 of the last 10.

    And that is a great point of pitchers switching leagues – who knows how much the market came into play. Clemens seemed to have no trouble adapting to the NL. Jeff Weaver got better, but I’m not sure he could have been worse. And there are soooo many factors that could come into play when ONE player switches teams (market, park affects, team defense, comfort with coaching staff, batterymate, weather, paying surface, age).

    My point (if I had one) on the Sox sucking in Interleague is just that you can’t really gauge much from it b/c the rules are different.

    And as far as the IBB to #8 –if there are two outs, the pitcher won’t be bunting and that is kind of what I was thinking on that.

    And yes there are sucky teams in the AL and the NL. So maybe the leagues are really pretty even. Until we come up with a better way to look at this.

    As for the “debate” on who was more tired and/or how much it affected performance, I’m going to stay on the sidelines of that one and simply observe the following:

    In 2003, the Yankees lost the World Series
    In 2004, the Red Sox won the World Series

    And I only point these things out because it is so damn fun to remember both occasions. Hell I don’t care if it happened because one team (the team I’m rooting against) was tired or if the entire team came down with syphilis from having illicit pre-game sex with cheap Thai whores resulting in the entire starting lineup being ill with fevers of 103. Either way, I repeat:

    In 2003, the Yankees lost the World Series
    In 2004, the Red Sox won the World Series

    Life is good.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Not once did I deny that the Yankees were beaten by the Marlins. I simply said the Yankees were exhausted, a statement I stick by. The 2003 Game 7 had to be one of the most brutal winner-take-all game in the history of the sport. That matters, especially when you only have one day to recuperate before playing again.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Another example of a pitcher changing with a league-switch: Jeff Suppan.

    But these are all anecdotal, and as Matt points out, there's the Pressure Factor, which may affect a Weaver or a Vazquez or a Brown. Or a Wright or a Pavano!!!

    (But not a Clement or a Miller. Please.)

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